The Rusted Spike: When the UN Collapses, International Law Becomes History
(A Post-Viral Analysis)
By: Tri Lukman Hakim, S.H.
Founder, KunciPro Research Institute
A few days ago, my article in Republika Retizen titled "The UN is Totally Paralyzed" was read by over 3,000 people in a matter of hours. To me, this figure is not merely a traffic statistic, but a seismograph of public anxiety.
Thousands share a collective fear: "If the world's referee (the UN) blows the whistle and no one listens, who guarantees our survival?"
The UN: A Peace Manifesto or Just a "Geopolitical Pit Stop"?
Before the UN existed as the world's "Iron Spike," the earth was fragile—like a loose sheet of paper in the wind. Colonization, annexation, and total war were the routine traditions of great powers.
Initially, I thought—like most—that the UN was created as a sacred temple of International Law. But observing today's reality, that thought seems romantic, even naive. The narrative that the UN is a "manifesto of eternal peace" is merely diplomatic lip service.
Let’s dissect history with cold logic:
The UN was formed in 1945, right after World War II. The superpowers (Allies & Axis) were exhausted. Food was scarce, ammunition depleted, and treasuries empty.
They agreed to form the UN not out of benevolence, but because they needed a "Recharging Phase." The UN served as a temporary truce vessel, a place for global giants to recover their economies and consolidate power.
The theory is simple:
Once the "charging period" is over and their hegemonic batteries are back to 100%, the UN becomes obsolete.
To fuel post-war recovery, they needed resources. Thus began the era of the scramble for "treasures" (gold, nickel, oil) in the Global South. And when that scramble heats up, the referee (UN) becomes a nuisance.
That is today's reality. Their batteries are full, and the UN is being discarded.
Not Fiction: Red Alert from New York
For those who think the UN's collapse is sci-fi, let’s talk data. This isn't an analyst's hallucination, but an official warning from the keymaster of the UN himself.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has issued a "Financial Ultimatum." The UN is facing the worst liquidity crisis in its history.
The facts are terrifying:
- Cash-Out by July 2026: Guterres warned that operational funds could run dry by mid-year if dues aren't paid.
- Gigantic Arrears: The US (the largest contributor, 22%) often withholds payments as political leverage. Member state arrears have reached billions.
- Operational Shutdown: Peacekeeping missions and humanitarian aid are being slashed due to budget deficits.
Imagine the worst-case scenario in July 2026: The lights at the NY Headquarters go out, diplomats are sent home, and the Security Council dissolves.
What remains? The Theory of the Rusted Spike.
The Philosophy of the Single Nail
For 80 years, the UN has acted as "One Giant Concrete Nail" holding the world map in place. We all—193 nations—hang on this single nail. When conflict arises, we trust this nail to bear the weight so the portrait of peace doesn't shatter.
But the data confirms: the giant nail is rusting (financial crisis) and cracking (veto abuse).
Geopolitical physics applies: When the central anchor fails, every entity will brutally hammer in their own nails.
The Era of "Fragmented Spikes"
This is the reality of "The Day After." Driven by distrust, nations are securing their own borders with jagged metal.
1. The Rise of the "VVIP Club" (The Board of Peace)
Defiance against the UN is no longer subtle; it is vulgar and transactional.
The latest proof is President Trump’s maneuver at Davos, announcing the "Board of Peace" (BoP) to rival the UN Security Council. His excuse? The UN is "too slow."
But the horror lies in the entry requirement. Trump set a "Pay-to-Play" fee of $1 Billion (IDR 16.8 Trillion) cash for membership.
- The Nail Logic: This isn't a safety nail; it’s a Golden Spike for the elite.
- Caste System: World peace transforms into a commercial commodity. Wealthy nations (VVIP) buy verdicts; poor nations become spectators. If the UN was founded on "Humanity," the BoP is founded on "Profitability." It’s not a Peace Council; it’s a Global Board of Directors.
Under the UN Charter (Chapter VIII), usurping the Security Council is legally flawed. But who dares sanction the US? No one. The main nail is powerless.
2. Brutal Protectionism (Economic Barbed Wire)
Without a global trade referee, nations are fencing off resources. India bans rice exports; Indonesia bans nickel ore. The law returns to the Stone Age: "My Yard, My Rules." Inflation is now a weapon of war.
3. National Law Over International Law
This is the most dangerous phase. ICJ rulings are treated as waste paper. Survival logic dictates: "To hell with international law, as long as my country is safe."
Conclusion: Indonesia's Stance?
A world without the UN isn't silent; it's deafening with the sound of sledgehammers as hundreds of nations build their own fortresses.
Amidst this noise, Indonesia must not be a passive "wooden plank." Our "Free and Active" policy must evolve. We must become an independent Golden Anchor:
- Food Sovereignty: So we don't starve when export gates close.
- Energy Sovereignty: So our lights stay on during blockades.
- Legal Sovereignty: So we aren't bullied by foreign "gangs."
We can't pay the UN's electricity bill. But we can ensure the lights in our own home (Indonesia) stay on when the global storm hits.
Read more in-depth geopolitical analysis at KunciPro Research Institute.
Source: This analysis is an English translation of an original op-ed by Tri Lukman Hakim S.H, published on the main journal. [Read Original Article in Indonesian]